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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 270528
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Oct 27 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Zeta, located inland over the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of 
Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Summary for Tropical Storm Zeta (AT3/AL282020)

...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... ...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Oct 27
 the center of Zeta was located near 21.0, -88.4
 with movement NW at 14 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 984 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Tropical Storm Zeta Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 270855
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Zeta Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
 
...ZETA CONTINUES TO PRODUCE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.0N 88.4W
ABOUT 85 MI...140 KM ESE OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
A Storm Surge Warning has been issued from Intracoastal City,
Louisiana, to Navarre, Florida, including Lake Borgne, Lake
Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and Mobile Bay.
 
A Hurricane Warning has been issued from Morgan City, Louisiana,
to the Mississippi/Alabama border, including Lake Pontchartrain,
Lake Maurepas, and metropolitan New Orleans.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from the 
Mississippi/Alabama border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line,
Florida.
 
The government of Mexico has changed the Hurricane Warning to a 
Tropical Storm Warning from Punta Allen to Progreso, including 
Cozumel.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Intracoastal City Louisiana to Navarre Florida
* Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, Vermilion Bay, Pensacola Bay, and
Mobile Bay
 
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Mississippi/Alabama border
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Metropolitan New Orleans
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta Allen to Progreso Mexico
* Cozumel
* Mississippi/Alabama border to Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
 
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* West of Morgan City to Intracoastal City Louisiana
 
A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.  This is a life-threatening situation.  Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions.  Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials. A Storm Surge Watch means there
is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water
moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during
the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the
National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov.
 
A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.  A warning is typically issued
36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous.  Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.
 
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
 
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Zeta was 
located over the northern Yucatan Peninsula near latitude 21.0 
North, longitude 88.4 West. Zeta is moving toward the northwest near 
14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue 
today.  Zeta should turn toward the north tonight, and a faster 
northward to north-northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday.  
On the forecast track, the center of Zeta will move over the 
southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and over the central 
Gulf of Mexico tonight.  Zeta is forecast to approach the northern 
Gulf Coast on Wednesday, and make landfall within the hurricane 
warning area late Wednesday or Wednesday night. 
 
Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) 
with higher gusts.  Zeta is forecast to re-strengthen when it moves 
over the southern Gulf of Mexico later this morning, and become a 
hurricane again later today.  Zeta is forecast to be at or near 
hurricane strength when it approaches the northern Gulf Coast late 
Wednesday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb (29.06 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Zeta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43
KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml.
 
STORM SURGE:  A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by
as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area within areas of onshore 
flow. 
 
The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline.  The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
 
Port Fourchon LA to Dauphin Island AL including Lake Borgne...4-6
ft
Intracoastal City LA to Port Fourchon LA including Vermilion
Bay...2-4 ft
Dauphin Island AL to Navarre FL including Mobile Bay and Pensacola
Bay...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain...2-4 ft
Navarre FL to Yankeetown FL including Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint
Andrew Bay...1-3 ft
 
The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves.  Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,
and can vary greatly over short distances.  For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.
 
RAINFALL:  Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local amounts of 12
inches are possible through Tuesday along and east-northeast of
Zetas track across the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico and the Cayman
Islands. An additional 1 to 3 inches of rain will be possible across
western Cuba through Tuesday.
 
An initial area of heavy rains will begin to impact the central Gulf
Coast tonight, spreading north into the Tennessee Valley on
Wednesday.  The core of the heavy rains associated with Zeta will
push northeast from eastern Louisiana, across southern Mississippi,
Alabama, northern Georgia through Wednesday night, and through the
southern Appalachians into the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday. Rainfall
totals of 2 to 4 inches with isolated amounts of 6 inches are
expected across these areas, resulting in flash, urban, small
stream, and minor river flooding.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions will continue within the warning 
area in Mexico this morning.
 
Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area
on the northern Gulf Coast late Wednesday, with tropical storm 
conditions beginning Wednesday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions 
are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on the 
northern Gulf coast by late Wednesday, and tropical storm 
conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area late 
Wednesday.
 
TORNADOES:  A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday and Wednesday
night over southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the
western Panhandle of Florida.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 270853
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM ZETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020
0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY...
LOUISIANA...TO NAVARRE...FLORIDA...INCLUDING LAKE BORGNE...LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA BAY...AND MOBILE BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM MORGAN CITY...LOUISIANA...
TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER...INCLUDING LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...
LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE...
FLORIDA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING
TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO...
INCLUDING COZUMEL.
 
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA TO NAVARRE FLORIDA
* LAKE BORGNE...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...VERMILION BAY...PENSACOLA
BAY...AND
MOBILE BAY
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...LAKE MAUREPAS...AND METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA ALLEN TO PROGRESO MEXICO
* COZUMEL
* MISSISSIPPI/ALABAMA BORDER TO OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF MORGAN CITY TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA
 
A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING 
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE... 
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION 
OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM 
SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV.  THIS IS 
A LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION.  PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS 
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM 
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.  
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL 
OFFICIALS. A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF 
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM 
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER 
SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT 
HURRICANES.GOV.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.  PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  88.4W AT 27/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  984 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE  70SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT.......120NE 120SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N  88.4W AT 27/0900Z
AT 27/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N  87.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 22.3N  90.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 24.4N  91.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 27.5N  91.2W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...110NE 120SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 31.7N  88.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 110SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 36.5N  81.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 40.3N  70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 210SE 180SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N  88.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 27/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Zeta Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 270858
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Zeta Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL282020
400 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020
 
Satellite imagery and surface data from Mexico indicated that Zeta 
made landfall along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula just north of 
Tulum near Ciudad Chemuyil just before 0400 UTC.  A WeatherFlow 
observing site just south of Ciudad Chemuyil reported light winds 
and a minimum pressure of 978 mb.  Another WeatherFlow site near 
Playa del Carmen reported a one-minute sustained wind of 64 kt with 
a gust to 76 kt.  Hurricane-force winds gusts were also reported on 
Cozumel.  Since the time of landfall, the center of Zeta has moved 
inland over the northern portions of the Yucatan peninsula.  Some 
weakening has likely occurred, so the initial intensity has been 
reduced to 60 kt.  Zeta is forecast to emerge off the northern coast 
of the Yucatan peninsula over the southern Gulf of Mexico shortly 
after 1200 UTC today.  Although some slight additional weakening is 
possible while the center moves overland early this morning, 
environmental conditions consisting of low vertical wind shear and 
warm water over the southern Gulf of Mexico should allow for 
re-strengthening over the next 24 hour or so. By the time Zeta moves 
over the northern Gulf, cooler waters and increasing shear are 
likely to cause the hurricane's intensity to level off or perhaps 
weaken slightly before landfall.  Regardless, Zeta is expected to be 
at or near hurricane intensity at landfall. Given Zeta's 
acceleration before landfall, strong winds are likely to spread well 
inland along northern Gulf coast Wednesday night.  The new NHC 
intensity forecast is again similar to the previous one, and is 
little above the model consensus, in best agreement with the HWRF 
model. 

Zeta is moving northwestward or 305/12 kt.  There has been no change 
to the track forecast reasoning. The hurricane will move around the 
southwestern portion of a mid-level ridge center east of Florida.  
By tonight, a vigorous shortwave trough ejecting out of the 
southwestern United States will cause Zeta to turn northward, and 
accelerate northward to north-northeastward on Wednesday and 
Thursday. This will bring Zeta across the north-central Gulf coast 
late Wednesday and over the southeastern United States on Thursday.  
The track guidance remains in good agreement with only some slight 
timing differences.  The updated NHC track forecast is again very 
similar to the previous advisory and close to the various consensus 
models.  The new track, intensity, and wind radii forecasts 
necessitate the issuance of Storm Surge, Hurricane, and Tropical 
Storm Warnings for a portion of the northern Gulf coast. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Tropical storm conditions will continue in portions of the 
northern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico through this morning. Heavy 
rainfall is expected across the Yucatan Peninsula, the Cayman 
Islands, and western Cuba today, which could lead to flash flooding 
in urban areas.
 
2. Hurricane conditions and life-threatening storm surge are 
expected along portions of the northern Gulf Coast by late 
Wednesday, and Storm Surge and Hurricane Warnings are in effect. 
Residents in the watch areas should follow any advice given by 
local officials.
 
3. Between tonight and Thursday, heavy rainfall is expected from 
portions of the central U.S. Gulf Coast into the southern 
Appalachians, and Mid-Atlantic States near and in advance of Zeta. 
This rainfall will lead to flash, urban, small stream, and minor 
river flooding.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/0900Z 21.0N  88.4W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
 12H  27/1800Z 22.3N  90.1W   65 KT  75 MPH...OVER WATER
 24H  28/0600Z 24.4N  91.5W   75 KT  85 MPH
 36H  28/1800Z 27.5N  91.2W   75 KT  85 MPH
 48H  29/0600Z 31.7N  88.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 60H  29/1800Z 36.5N  81.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 72H  30/0600Z 40.3N  70.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Zeta Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 270855
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM ZETA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11             
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL282020               
0900 UTC TUE OCT 27 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ZETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR  
60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H.                                         
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
NANTUCKET MA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
PROVIDENCE RI  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
NEW LONDON CT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MONTAUK POINT  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
ISLIP NY       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NYC JFK AIRPRT 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
TRENTON NJ     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NWS EARLE NJ   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PHILADELPHIA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTIC CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BALTIMORE MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
DOVER DE       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
ANNAPOLIS MD   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
WASHINGTON DC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CAPE HENLOPEN  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
OCEAN CITY MD  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  14(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 
PAX RIVER NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
WALLOPS CDA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHARLOTTESVIL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
RICHMOND VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
DANVILLE VA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK NAS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
NORFOLK VA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
OCEANA NAS VA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ELIZABETH CTY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GREENSBORO NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
RALEIGH NC     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
ROCKY MT NC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
CAPE HATTERAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FAYETTEVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
CHARLOTTE NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  13(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
CHERRY PT NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
NEW RIVER NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MOREHEAD CITY  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
SURF CITY NC   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WILMINGTON NC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
FLORENCE SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
COLUMBIA SC    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
LITTLE RIVER   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
MYRTLE BEACH   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GEORGETOWN SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CHARLESTON SC  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
BEAUFORT MCAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
ATLANTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  28(33)   X(33)   X(33)
ATLANTA GA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
AUGUSTA GA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
SAVANNAH GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
KINGS BAY GA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
WAYCROSS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   4( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MAYPORT NS FL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
JACKSONVILLE   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GAINESVILLE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
CEDAR KEY FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
TALLAHASSEE FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   6(17)   X(17)   X(17)
 
ST MARKS FL    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)   4(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
APALACHICOLA   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  15(16)   2(18)   X(18)   X(18)
 
GFMX 290N 850W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  13(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 
PANAMA CITY FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   2(27)   X(27)   X(27)
 
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  42(43)   4(47)   X(47)   X(47)
DESTIN EXEC AP 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   2( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
DESTIN EXEC AP 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
COLUMBUS GA    34  X   X( X)   X( X)  16(16)  25(41)   X(41)   X(41)
COLUMBUS GA    50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   7( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
COLUMBUS GA    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
BIRMINGHAM AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)  11(28)   X(28)   X(28)
BIRMINGHAM AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)  37(37)  16(53)   X(53)   X(53)
MONTGOMERY AL  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   8(16)   X(16)   X(16)
MONTGOMERY AL  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  53(55)   4(59)   X(59)   X(59)
WHITING FLD FL 50  X   X( X)   X( X)  15(15)   4(19)   X(19)   X(19)
WHITING FLD FL 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)  55(57)   3(60)   X(60)   X(60)
PENSACOLA FL   50  X   X( X)   X( X)  17(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)
PENSACOLA FL   64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)  10(10)  31(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
GFMX 290N 870W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
GFMX 290N 870W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   3( 3)  66(69)   3(72)   X(72)   X(72)
MOBILE AL      50  X   X( X)   X( X)  30(30)   2(32)   X(32)   X(32)
MOBILE AL      64  X   X( X)   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   5( 5)  65(70)   X(70)   X(70)   X(70)
GULFPORT MS    50  X   X( X)   X( X)  32(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GULFPORT MS    64  X   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  59(65)   X(65)   X(65)   X(65)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  29(30)   X(30)   X(30)   X(30)
STENNIS MS     64  X   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   1( 1)  16(17)  62(79)   X(79)   X(79)   X(79)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  38(40)   X(40)   X(40)   X(40)
BURAS LA       64  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   8( 8)  45(53)  23(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   9( 9)  18(27)   X(27)   X(27)   X(27)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   6( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)   X( 8)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   X(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)  11(11)  45(56)   X(56)   X(56)   X(56)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)  23(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   9( 9)  73(82)   7(89)   X(89)   X(89)   X(89)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)  51(51)  13(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)  25(25)   7(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  19(25)   X(25)   X(25)   X(25)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
BATON ROUGE LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   1( 1)  15(16)  22(38)   X(38)   X(38)   X(38)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   9(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)
MORGAN CITY LA 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   8(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   7( 7)  10(17)   X(17)   X(17)   X(17)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   6( 6)  25(31)   1(32)   X(32)   X(32)   X(32)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   7( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   8( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   5( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)   X( 7)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
GFMX 250N 960W 34  X   4( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 
MERIDA MX      34 82   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)   X(82)
MERIDA MX      50 13   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
COZUMEL MX     34 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
COZUMEL MX     50 99   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)   X(99)
 
CP SAN ANTONIO 34  3   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   6( 6)  54(60)   3(63)   X(63)   X(63)
PENSACOLA NAS  50  X   X( X)   X( X)  19(19)   2(21)   X(21)   X(21)
PENSACOLA NAS  64  X   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)  13(13)  63(76)   X(76)   X(76)   X(76)
KEESLER AB     50  X   X( X)   1( 1)  39(40)   1(41)   X(41)   X(41)
KEESLER AB     64  X   X( X)   X( X)  10(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BROWN

Tropical Storm Zeta Graphics

Tropical Storm Zeta 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 08:59:28 GMT

Tropical Storm Zeta 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:25:25 GMT

Tropical Storm Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics

Tropical Storm Zeta Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics Image
Probabilistic Storm Surge Graphics last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:18:25 GMT

Tropical Storm Zeta Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

Tropical Storm Zeta Link to Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:30:34 GMT

Tropical Storm Zeta Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map

Tropical Storm Zeta Link to Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:00:20 GMT

Local Statement for Lake Charles, LA

Issued at  1017 PM CDT Mon Oct 26 2020

Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

Issued at  242 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Local Statement for Birmingham, AL

Issued at  425 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Local Statement for Jackson, MS

Issued at  433 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL

Issued at  444 AM CDT Tue Oct 27 2020

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270533
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 26 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form south of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec by the end of the week.  Some further development 
will be possible thereafter and continue through the weekend while 
the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Tue, 27 Oct 2020 09:45:08 GMT